When the sun turns back to Asia again, on October 30, the most intense financial offensive and defensive war since the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis began in Hong Kong.
Central, Hong Kong.
At the Hong Kong headquarters of Deutsche Bank in the international financial center building, Hans Eder did not rest all night last night, and naturally did not return to his luxury suite in the Grand Hyatt Hotel.
Since yesterday's closing, Hans Eder has been calling the headquarters of Deutsche Bank for more than ten hours in a row to seek support, to look down on Hong Kong's capital and discuss countermeasures, and even to contact some contacts in the United States to inquire for information and seek a possible way out.
In Hong Kong's financial market, Hans Eder can imagine that if he can't survive the next two days, his personal career will end.
Even if this is not his operational error at all, it is a black swan event that no one expected.
However, Hans Edel is very clear that this is never a world of right and wrong, it is a world of success and failure.
If you are a failure, no matter what the reason, you are a failure.
Hans Edel once wanted to give up because he knew what he was facing.
Simon westero and George Soros are just standing on the stage. They are facing the whole wall street and the Hong Kong authorities who are going to intervene directly in order to protect their own financial markets and no longer follow the rules of the game.
None of the three parties can be resisted by ordinary capital.
Backed by Deutsche Bank, Hans Edel is no ordinary capital, but he can't resist it either. Because the German headquarters, after a long conference call, almost gave up. Therefore, he did not get any additional support. The headquarters only asked him to reduce the loss as much as possible.
However, even if he can minimize the loss, he is still a loser.
In 1997, the Hong Kong stock market opened at 10 a.m.
At 9:30, pre market trading begins.
Hans Eder, who is directly in the office of the trading team, has no intention of expecting miracles, and directly asks traders to start looking for all kinds of short contracts in hand.
Feedback soon came that the system was overstocking orders and could not close the deal at all.
This is also expected.
How can Wall Street easily escape from such a trap?
Half an hour later, at 10 o'clock, the Hong Kong stock market officially opened. In an instant, it jumped from yesterday's 10537 to 10624. There is a big screen projected on the wall of the trading office. Hans Eder just stares at the fluctuation of the index and curve, ignoring the subconscious gaze of some traders waiting for orders.
The minimum margin ratio of Hong Kong futures market is 10%, that is, 10 times leverage.
That is to say, in the next two days, for the short capital of Hong Kong, we must try our best to keep the Hang Seng index below 11000 points, so as to avoid many short positions which are full of leverage and unable to replenish the margin.
In the current situation, no one will be foolish enough to fill more margin.
It is estimated that the compensation will be as much as the supplement.
Hans Eder is very clear that yesterday's close of more than 10500 points has actually let a small number of short bets within 9500 points and fully leveraged shorting capital directly burst their positions, including his own side. Some contracts have also been forced to close out.
The question now is, after the official settlement tomorrow, how much is left?
As for the previous direct extension of the futures before the expiration of the position transfer operation, this time is obviously not possible. Or because of the zero sum game, the bulls will not accompany you when they have won a big victory.
Let's talk about our side.
In addition to all kinds of short futures, Hans Eder also holds about $500 million worth of Hong Kong stocks.
These chips were originally used to short and smash the market in order to make more money when the market goes down.
Now, it has become a tool to pay as little as possible.
Hans Eder actually thought that holding these stocks in his hand and waiting for appreciation would be equivalent to making up for the loss.
After all, this idea is just a flash.
The US $500 million chip was originally bought in the high range of Hong Kong stocks in recent months, and its positioning is not investment at all. Moreover, the current situation is also very obvious. The Hong Kong authorities, as well as Wall Street capital, can not raise the Hang Seng Index indefinitely. According to Hans Edel, after the offensive and defensive war at the end of this month, the Hang Seng index range guarded by Hong Kong is about 10000 points.
Compared with the previous purchase price, the Hang Seng index is still at a loss of 10000 points.
Therefore, these two days, as the Hong Kong authorities and Wall Street capital want to hold up the Hang Seng Index as high as possible, it is the best time for him to sell these stocks. Of course, unless there is a super black swan in the Hang Seng index again, it will return to 16000 in two days. This is of course a dream. Therefore, the book value of these stocks will definitely be at a loss after settlement.Office shows the trend of the HSI curve on the big screen.
After a short jump in the opening market, short capital began to exert its strength, and the Hang Seng Index fell rapidly again, and then rose again.
Up and down.
Up and down.
So until noon 12 o'clock, two hours of morning trading, the Hang Seng Index has been fluctuating around yesterday's 10500.
That's what Hans Edel expected.
Because it's afternoon.
Different from tomorrow's settlement day, the HSI Futures contract will be settled according to the average basis of the whole day. Today, the settlement points are real-time. Therefore, as long as the Bulls pull the Hang Seng Index up to 11000 in the last minute today, a large number of short positions will burst again and be forced to liquidate afterwards.
During the lunch break, Hans Eder, who has always been very moderate, unexpectedly made a little self mockery of himself because he thought about things. The rest of his time was spent on making phone calls and discussing countermeasures with the team.
Throughout the morning, the trading team only closed a small part of their positions and recovered less than $200 million.
At one o'clock in the afternoon, the stock market opened again.
In the first hour, the situation was still warm around 10500. After two o'clock, the Hang Seng index began to rise rapidly again.
Under Hans Eder's explanation, the big screen projection in the trading office has changed from the macro curve of the Hang Seng Index to the specific share prices of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index.
At 2:15, Hans Eder finally issued today's first order to sell, smashing a $20 million Hang Seng index component at one time. The trader who received the order finished the operation, glanced at another computer screen in front of him, and found that the Hang Seng index had a downward fluctuation.
Then, with all the information in mind, Eder kept directing traders to sell stocks at a rate of about once every 10 minutes.
I make a few more calls once in a while.
However, the Hang Seng index continued to rise in the shock after all.
After two hours of torment and eight to 10 minutes of floating trading time in the Hong Kong stock market compared with other markets, the Hang Seng Index finally closed at 10711, up 2.5% in a single day.
More statistics came.
On the whole trading day of October 30, the trading volume of the Hong Kong stock market more than doubled from yesterday, reaching HK $79.6 billion. Compared with the average trading scale of about HK $10 billion on the previous normal trading day, the trading volume of the Hong Kong stock market fully increased by seven times, which shows the fierce long short game on this day.
In the traders' office of the Hong Kong headquarters of Deutsche Bank, when most of the traders were lucky to hold the 9800 point short position, Hans Eder, who had been standing in the corner for almost a day, slowly slid down the wall and sat on the ground.
Of the $500 million chips, only $170 million is left.
This is the best he can save after saving again and again.
If you think about the general situation of other short sellers you know, Hans Eder knows that those people will only have less chips.
As for Wall Street and the Hong Kong government?
Hans Eder may be able to guess that the main force of bulls today must be Hong Kong, while Wall Street may not even do much!
In this case, you don't have to take any chances tomorrow.
It is almost inevitable that the market will burst.
Thinking about this, Hans Eder slowly got up, went back to his office, picked up the phone, dialed the German headquarters, gave a dry report of his judgment, and then casually carried his expensive Armani suit, some left the financial center building and returned to Junyue hotel.
I'm going to have a good sleep.
Perhaps, after a long period of time, it is not easy to stay in such a good hotel.
As for tomorrow, let him go.
Just walking all the way back to the Grand Hyatt Hotel, Hans Eder looked up with emotion and wanted to take a look at this high-end hotel in the golden location of Hong Kong.
Then, a black spot suddenly fell from the top of the building.
It's getting closer and bigger.
At last, Hans Eder fell more than ten meters away with a bang. Eder felt like a broken watermelon falling to the ground.
It's very similar in every way.
This is a man in a gray suit.
Hans Eder was just passing by a woman's scream and looked at him for a moment. He was just curious. How did this guy get to the roof?
As for why the other side jumped, Edel didn't think much about it.
What else.
Speculation futures, lost all.
But why jump? It's good to be alive, even a loser.
Again, many people stay up all night.
The next day, the indifferent sunshine toured the Asian sky again and found that the annoying Cloud City covered the city of Hong Kong, as if there were some secrets that outsiders didn't want to know.It's a little annoying.
Fortunately, clouds are weak in front of the sun, and there are many other areas that can shine.
There's really no suspense.
October 31, the last day of October, is also the final settlement day of various futures positions in Hong Kong's financial market.
Different from the previous days when the transaction is conducted according to the real-time data of Hang Seng Index, the final settlement points of Hang Seng index futures will be settled according to an average value of the whole day's trading period on the settlement day. That is to say, even if the Hang Seng Index surges to 16000 points in the last minute, if the average value of the whole day is only 10000 points, it will be settled according to 10000 points.
Because of these rules, when some bears who can't see the situation clearly think that today's game will be easier, the Hong Kong stock market officially opened at 10 am, and the Hang Seng index jumped up again from 10711 points at yesterday's closing, reaching 11032 points directly. If it wasn't for the settlement day, more Hang Seng index bears would burst.
Short capital immediately launched a counterattack.
However, this time, the short selling seems to have met an iron wall. Instead of driving the Hang Seng index into 11000 again, the exponential curve keeps going up steadily. It's like a tank breaking into a cold weapon battlefield, completely ignoring the bow, arrow, spear, spear, or cavalry charge around, it just rolls forward with ease, rolling from 11000 to 11500 all the way.
Until the final closing in the afternoon, the Hang Seng index was finally fixed at 11507, with a one-day rise of 7.4%.
In October, the settlement points of Hang Seng index futures were finally set at 11265 points. None of the short positions in the 9000 point range of Hang Seng Index Futures survived. Not only that, because the account amount of some short positions was not enough to cover the losses at all, the Hong Kong Futures Exchange had to pay part of the losses in advance temporarily and recover from the relevant members afterwards.
In addition to hang seng index futures, the short selling of all kinds of stocks in Hong Kong stock market, and even some other short selling modes, all ended up with huge losses.
This global financial defense war ended with the victory of Hong Kong authorities and Wall Street bulls.
No one knows how much of the total loss of short capital. The media can only make vague statistics based on various public data afterwards, and the generally accepted figure is about $30 billion.
In this era, the top companies in the world, with annual profit scale of only 5 billion US dollars, are typical of Denise entertainment group.
Most of the financial giants, in the ordinary people's impression, may have tens of billions of business, in fact, the annual profit scale is basically around 1 billion US dollars, such as Goldman Sachs.
30 billion US dollars, according to the profit level of this year, is equivalent to the profit of Goldman Sachs in 30 years.
Even if a lot of Wall Street financial giants share the $30 billion, it is absolutely a fat piece. Many of the capital that fell into the trap, such as Deutsche Bank, which disclosed a serious loss afterwards, not only spit out all the short profits in Thailand, Malaysia and other countries, but also put in more than $1 billion again.
Hans Eder, vice president of derivatives trading at Deutsche Bank, later chose to resign voluntarily.
After a week of excitement, time comes to the weekend.
It's November 1, Halloween.
The North American Halloween schedule opened yesterday. Another blockbuster of the danilisi Entertainment Group's evocation movie universe, evocation 3, started painting at the same time in all major markets in North America and the world. However, it is basically a phenomenal ultra-low-cost pseudo documentary film Ghost reality, which is competitive with itself.
Hong Kong's Halloween atmosphere is not strong.
Taiping mountain.
In the mansion on Shi Xun road.
After the press conference on Wednesday, Chen Qing did not leave. She stayed in Hong Kong all the time to watch the excitement, and also took stock of the harvest.
Because she got inside information from her boss, Chen Qing and Lin Su quietly set up a bull with the scale of several hundred million US dollars, which can also be regarded as two little crocodiles. After settlement yesterday, the profit exceeded 50 million US dollars, enough to buy a top luxury house in Hong Kong.
Hello, everyone. Our public account will send cash and red envelopes every day. You can get them as long as you pay attention to them. The last welfare at the end of the year, please seize the opportunity. The official account [book]
], of course, is not interesting to Chen Qing, since his boss is not interested in Hongkong. Of course, he will not spend the money.
In the morning.
Hong Kong, where it rained yesterday, is still gloomy today, with occasional rain falling.
Chen Qing is in a good mood. She is entertaining guests from Korea.