Chapter 447: 447

Because there was sufficient exploration and foreshadowing before, it was natural for Xiangjiang futures exchange to launch foreign exchange futures, including Hong Kong dollar, US dollar, British pound, West German mark, Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

Xiangjiang foreign exchange market is an invisible market with considerable scale. If you want to quantify it vividly with figures, you can only ask for data from the Hong Kong government, but Xia Dingji, the financial secretary of the Hong Kong government, does not respond to such questions.

Gao Xian estimated that the average daily turnover of Xiangjiang foreign exchange market should be more than one billion US dollars, while the forward foreign exchange purchased by Xiangjiang banks reached tens of billions of US dollars.

In this case, after the introduction of foreign exchange futures by Xiangjiang futures exchange, licensed banks, licensed deposit taking companies, registered deposit taking companies and overseas financial institutions poured in, making foreign exchange futures a variety that can immediately rival the trading activity of gold futures.

Gao Xian not only let Gao Yi save his character to help Xiangjiang local companies with international trade business and make use of the foreign exchange futures tools of haoxiangjiang futures exchange to reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations in the international foreign exchange market, but also did not forget to make himself convenient.

For example, Gaoyi began a new West German mark buying operation. In terms of foreign exchange futures, the farthest contract trading date is set at the beginning of the second quarter of next year, that is, six months later.

The basis for this comes from Gao Xian's more and more in-depth understanding of the Carter government. Various signs show that the US Treasury will protect the value of the US dollar, and the strongest currency at present is the West German mark.

To put it bluntly, the United States has a great probability of buying a large number of West German marks next year to defend the exchange rate of the US dollar.

Xiangjiang media's attention to the launch of foreign exchange trading varieties by Xiangjiang futures exchange was just a flash, but they were chasing a paper by Gao Xian.

Gao Xian will regularly submit papers to the research school of Xiangjiang university to complete his academic courses. The most recent paper is the observation and discussion of Xiangjiang's monetary and financial system at this stage, which has issued many warnings. Unexpectedly, it was captured by the increasingly powerful Xiangjiang media and hyped as a gimmick.

Gao Xian's examination of Xiangjiang's monetary and financial system in this paper starts from the end of the 1960s and the beginning of the 1970s.

At that time, the pound depreciated significantly for many times, which shook the foundation of the pound exchange standard system.

On June 23, 1972, the British government announced that the exchange rate of the pound was free to float.

In a hurry, about half a month later, the Hong Kong government announced that the Hong Kong dollar was decoupled from the British pound and instead linked to the US dollar. The official exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar was 5.65 Hong Kong dollars against the US dollar.

However, the US dollar itself is also facing severe devaluation pressure. For example, it depreciated by 10% in February 1973, but the Hong Kong dollar linked to the US dollar did not depreciate with it, resulting in the adjustment of the official exchange rate to HK $5.085 against the US dollar, that is, the value of the Hong Kong dollar rose.

By 1974, the international hot money in the US dollar was pounding everywhere, and the pressure on the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar was further increased. However, the small shoulders of the Hong Kong government could not withstand this energy at all, and could not take large-scale intervention. They watched the influx of hot money into the Hong Kong River, and the money supply of the Hong Kong dollar increased abnormally, threatening the stable development of the economy.

Therefore, on November 25, 1974, when the US dollar was decoupled from gold, the Hong Kong government immediately announced that the Hong Kong dollar was decoupled from the US dollar and a free floating exchange rate system was implemented.

The Hong Kong dollar performed well at the beginning of the era of free floating exchange rate.

In Gao Xian's view, one of the reasons was that although the global economy fell into recession at that time, the Xiangjiang ship made a small turn, the economic performance was ok, and even the current account of the balance of payments continued to have a surplus, and the Hong Kong dollar had to face the pressure of appreciation.

One data support is that the Hong Kong dollar foreign exchange index rose from 103.7 in 1973 to 114.4 in 1976.

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However, after the world's economies gradually climbed out of the mire of economic recession, Xiangjiang international trade faced serious challenges, resulting in a continuous increase in foreign trade deficit, and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate began to face the pressure of depreciation.

Within Xiangjiang, as the real estate market began to flourish, the credit scale showed signs of expansion, and the money supply rose.

In the final analysis, at this stage, the Hong Kong government has the motivation to guard against the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, but it does not have the awareness to guard against the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar.

Gao Xian warned Xiangjiang's monetary and financial system in his paper that if this continues, the Hong Kong dollar will depreciate, the exchange rate will break seven soon, and the inflation rate will reach the worrying double digits.

For this paper, most of the media in Xiangjiang believe that Gao Xian's warning of the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar may be to cooperate with the launch of foreign exchange futures by Xiangjiang futures exchange, and Gao Xian's warning of inflation is easy to empathize.

When he knew that his recently published paper had been hyped by the media, Gao Xian couldn't help frowning slightly.

His published papers are basically wandering in the academic circle. How did they suddenly attract the attention of Xiangjiang media?

In places like Xiangjiang, the temple is small and the wind is strong, so people have to guard against it!

Ma Qiwen, who has been helping Gao Xian deal with this matter, was directly angry. "Brother Gao Xian, according to the media reports, you sing about the Xiangjiang economy through your paper, which is inconsistent with your identity. It's really dangerous. I'll go and find out who's making waves."

"Don't go into this muddy water." Gao Xian waved his hand. "I'm just doing an academic discussion. Are you really afraid of being punished for words?"

Just as he was talking, the Hong Kong government telephoned governor MacLehose to invite Gao Xian to attend the Advisory meeting.

Before Gao Xian went out, he touched Ma Qiwen's face and joked, "Yongda has made a lot of money recently. Don't you go and play the autumn wind?"

……

This meeting is not a meeting of the Executive Council of the Hong Kong government, or some people of insight selected by governor MacLehose as consultants to provide advisory services for his administration.

When Gao Xian arrived at the Hong Kong government, he saw that the financial secretary, Xia Dingji, had already sat down.

"I have read Sir Gao's paper, which is really thought-provoking." Xia Dingji mentioned it in his chat.

Hong Kong Governor Mai Lihao smiled and listened to the discussion, and then asked about the operation of Xiangjiang futures exchange.

That's the same sentence. With Gao Xian's current status, he can't be convicted for his words. The media may just want to hype his eyeball sales, but when Gao Xian's worries come true, he has to kneel and lick his face with the pain of being pumped.

When Shen Bi and others from the HSBC team were present and all the people were present, the Hong Kong Governor Mai Lihao asked the question he wanted to ask, "there has been a high voice on liberalizing the control of bank licenses recently. What do you think of this?"

Seeing that all the people present fell silent for a moment, the financial secretary Xia Dingji said with a smile: "Sir Gao first said that it would be better if there were papers in this regard. It would be better to give them directly to the governor for reference."

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