Jardine's gang are restless. An unexpected incident that seems to have diverted Gao Xian and Gao Yi's attention gives them a temporary sigh of relief.
On August 12, Mexico's finance minister, Jesus Flores, announced that Mexico could not repay its maturing debts, and subsequently took a series of actions, including closing the foreign exchange market.
To put it bluntly, the Mexican government has suspended its obligation to pay its debts on time, that is, there is a sovereign debt crisis.
The significance of this news to Xiangjiang, an international financial center, first of all, has been organizing various seminars in recent months to analyze the high chord of the international financial situation. By the way, the grey rhinoceros has really come, and then its level and vision have been shown. Then many participants can't help but be excited and proud. To sum it up in a common saying, They have material to brag about Boyle.
Objectively speaking, although the sovereign debt crisis is not common, it is no stranger to the capital circle. In recent ten years, such a situation has occurred in Turkey, Peru and other countries.
Even the United States is no exception. In 1971, the Nixon government announced that it would stop fulfilling its obligation to exchange U.S. dollars for gold in the Bretton Woods system, which is also a breach of sovereignty.
However, the capital players represented by Citibank boasted that the country would never go bankrupt, which attracted countless believers, so that even they believed it. The early high string research activities became a small theoretical research on paper, and even were considered to have more money and no work to do.
Now, Gao Xian's analysis has been fulfilled, so his previous papers, speeches and other relevant materials have become a pastry, collected and cited.
Facing the reporter's impatient interview, Gao Xian gave his own views, "According to the survey results of Gaoyi, the debt of Latin American economies to commercial banks has increased dramatically in the past decade, from $75 billion in 1975 to about $300 billion this year, which is equivalent to 50% of the fart of chickens in the region. The debt repayment scale, including interest payment and principal repayment, has increased at an even more alarming rate in 1975 It was $12 billion this year and about $66 billion this year. "
"In this case, Mexico's suspension of debt repayment obligations is only the beginning. The sovereign debt crisis in Latin America will soon spread like a fallen domino."
When participating in capital and business circle activities such as Xiangjiang Banking Association, Gao Xian said more clearly, "the reason for the outbreak of Mexico's sovereign debt crisis is the pressure of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates with an iron fist, leading to the appreciation of the US dollar."
"Therefore, although Latin America and Xiangjiang are separated by a vast Pacific Ocean and far away, Xiangjiang has become an international financial center. The floating exchange rate between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar cannot really have no impact."
Speaking of this, Gao Xian raised an example, "a large amount of funds similar to many European and American international commercial banks are deeply trapped in the mire of the inability of Latin American economies to repay their debts. Xiangjiang banking industry is deeply dragged down by the collapse of the real estate industry, and there will be no more Jianing."
"For example, Jardine, at the beginning of this year, just for the new central Diwang, it lent more than 10 billion Hong Kong dollars to the lending alliance composed of Huifeng, Standard Chartered, Yili and other banks. Now the real estate industry has collapsed and the banking interest is so high, can Jardine really bear it?"
Niu Bijian, the Yihe senior class sitting at the banquet, almost fainted with fear after hearing Sir Gao's words. Originally, he thought that Gao Xian would forget Yihe for the time being because of his "pressure on the Chinese treasure" in the study of the international financial situation. Unexpectedly, he was easily named in public.
During this time, there are more and more so-called social activities in Xiangjiang business and capital circles, because British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher will pay an official visit to China next month and discuss the future of Xiangjiang. Everyone is concerned about any trouble, even if they miss a little trouble.
There is no doubt that the future of Xiangjiang will have a profound impact on Xiangjiang's economic activities. In addition, the current international financial situation is so bad that Xiangjiang's company inevitably ushers in a "cold winter".
Under such circumstances, Jardine's no matter how hard it denies that there is no problem with its operation, it gives people a feeling of weakness. After all, its debt scale and the lice on its bald head are obvious.
At this time, Gao Xian's "harsh and loyal advice" dare not be regarded as groundless. Shen Bi, the senior class of Huifeng bank, talked to Sir Gao several times.
Next month, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher will pay an official visit to China. At this time, the traditional British funded giants of Xiangjiang, such as Huifeng and Jardine, also begin to mobilize energy to express their demands. It is even more important to coerce some Chinese funded representatives of Xiangjiang to build momentum and exert pressure on Yanjing.
However, even for Huifeng bank, the opportunity to talk with Sir Gao is very valuable. Shen Bi doesn't want to waste his time.
At this stage, Huifeng bank faces two thorny problems.
The first thorny problem is that dodoli is deeply involved in the commercial fraud scandal in Jianing.
You know, reap Duoli, Gaoyi, Yifu and Baoyuan are known by the media as the four major investment banks in Xiangjiang. It can be seen that the position of the industry is very important, and there is no doubt about the degree of professionalism. However, if there is such a big problem in Jianing, who asked reap Duoli to act as a financial adviser, will anyone believe that reap Duoli wants to pretend to be innocent?
Huifeng bank is also reluctant to give up its chariot to protect itself from excessive profits and break its wrists. If it does, the results of Huifeng bank's hard work in the field of investment banking, which took more than ten years, will be zero, and Shen Bi can't bear this responsibility.
Therefore, Huifeng bank secretly influenced the relevant departments of the Hong Kong government on the investigation of Jianing commercial fraud, while seeking to reach a private settlement with the victims of Jianing commercial fraud who want to claim.
The second thorny issue relates to Shen Bi's masterpiece and the successful implementation of Huifeng bank's "three benches" strategy for business internationalization in North America.
The reason why American Haifeng bank can be 100% purchased by Huifeng bank is not because American Haifeng bank has poor management and serious losses, and wants Huifeng bank to supply blood for itself.
Now, the sovereign debt crisis in Latin America has broken out. Like other American and European commercial banks, Haifeng Bank of America can't recover a large number of loans, let alone turn losses into profits. If Huifeng bank doesn't give blood, Haifeng Bank of America will be finished.
Huifeng bank's acquisition of American Haifeng bank is simply to buy a father and dare to cut off the supply. All the previous efforts have come to naught.
Shen Bi looks at the new headquarters of Huifeng bank, which has not been built in the distance and costs US $1 billion. If he wants to get Duoli, the despairing "son" and the "father" of American Haifeng bank who wants alimony, he is worried that the landlord has no surplus food!
Therefore, Shen Bi cared more and more about Jardine's ability to repay debts, especially after listening to Gao Xian's justified analysis.