Chapter 101: Chapter 101: Idle Speculation

“How many do you think will actually decide to join us?” Ethan asked nobody in particular, they were on their way to Kirton and normal conversation would have felt meaningless. So, instead he decided to talk about the one thing that would definitely not be considered meaningless.

“I think it is going to be roughly all or nothing. If enough of them decided it is worth siding with us, the rest will follow suit. They may be neutral but they have their own internal politics, being the odd one out is not really a good situation to be in if you are not overwhelmingly stronger than the rest.” Cinar thought before saying what he thought would happen. It sounded extreme but it was logical, if a bit cynical. Though they all knew that cynical was almost a byword for being a noble.

“I think that they will split up into a few camps. One siding with us to take down Duke Ryder, another wanting to stay neutral. Though I could also see some trying to fence sit between staying truly neutral and actually helping us. It might be a risky position but I could see a few of them trying it anyway.” The King took a different stance, thinking that the neutral lords would end up splitting down different lines than pure pragmatism. That of attitude towards Casburland being the deciding factor, with a few trying to fish for the most benefits by taking neither side.

“What about yourself?” Braydon asked Ethan, deciding to keep his opinion until he heard what the others had to say.

“I think that it will be a mix. Some will decide based on how much they hate Casburland, others by looking at what their peers do and others still based on what their allies and enemies do. I do think that we will end up with a majority of them on our side but as for how many exactly, I could not say.” As he heard what Ethan had to say about the matter, Braydon nodded. That sounded the most like the eastern nobles that he knew and grew up learning about. It could be summed up in a few words: Self interest is key.

“I would have to agree with Ethan on that, I just do not think that they are internally organised enough to be deciding based on a single factor.” Braydon said, though he was less certain than Ethan about the amount of lords that would side with them.

“Then what do you guys think that Duke Ryder’s first move will be?” King Aled moved onto the speculation that concerned him more. It would not matter if the neutral lords promised to side with them if Duke Ryder marched straight for them before the neutral lords could rally their troops. 

“I think he will try taking out Earl Blake before anything else.” When Cinar said that, the rest of the group looked at him oddly. Earl Blake was one of the last people that they expected Duke Ryder to try and take out. He controlled the smallest faction and his faction’s armies had not been gathered yet anyway. It would make more sense to take out a bigger target.

“Why him?” Braydon asked what everyone was thinking.

“Did you forget that Duke Burn is still in the northwest? I do not doubt that he will try to pull Earl Blake to his side. Even if he does not wait for him to gather his armies, just a guarantee that Blake will attack Duke Ryder from behind when he tries to go for an important target will be enough. Blake might not be a real contender but he is more than enough to be considered a major nuisance. I doubt Duke Ryder will want to let such a small stumbling block be his undoing.

“But what if he just went straight for Duke Burn instead? Would that not have a similar effect and get more done?” Ethan asked, if Duke Burn was taken out before he could somehow convince Earl Blake then it would be much better for Duke Ryder than just attacking Earl Blake.

“Give Duke Burn more credit than that, he managed to have a spy so deep in Duke Ryder’s inner circle that he found out about his schemes early. I do not think that he will be so easy to out manoeuvre. Having a spy in his circles will be just as important as in Duke Ryder’s.” Cinar raised an important point, it would do them good to look at Duke Burn’s actions as well as Duke Ryder’s. If Duke Burn made a pre-emptive action, it would be good to know why he was doing it. 

“I still think that he will try to consolidate his power before making another move easily. After all, he did also lose men at the border, maybe not as much by proportion as we did, but not a small number. I think that he will gather more men or try to truly take over Duke Oakley’s old territories before making a move. He should know that it will be hard to defeat either us or Duke Burn before we have gathered more men. I think it would be more likely that he tries to increase his advantages before attacking.” Braydon took a different stance, thinking that Duke Ryder would play his hand more conservatively than Cinar thought he would.

“What about trying to take over the capital, that would give him far more legitimacy to claim that he should be the rightful King of Fiveria. And it would likely convince more lords to side with him, the capital is highly symbolic of Fiverian power after all.” If anyone other than Aled had raised this point they would have been treading on eggshells bringing up such an idea in front of the actual rightful King of Fiveria. Since it was Aled himself that brought it up, however it was easier for the others to speak about it.

“I doubt that he would. While it would be a prestigious thing to conquer the capital, it would be too costly to do whilst there are hostile armies waiting to take him down. Even if you have brought a significant proportion of your men away from the capital, like now, the garrison is still intimidatingly large. Let alone how good the fortifications are. It is still the best defended city in Fiveria by far.” Cinar disagreed that Duke Ryder would follow through with such a move. Based on his knowledge, the Duke was not supremely concerned with prestige and symbolism. Instead he preferred tangible benefits and power.

“I sure hope that that is the case.” The King was glad that they thought it was unlikely. If Duke Ryder got a hold of the Royal palace, he could be certain that all of his trusted people would be put to the sword immediately. Even if they ended up defeating the Duke after that, it would really hurt to have to rebuild from that position.